Posts Tagged ‘Wind’

Turbine Output to Increase This Weekend

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw.  This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14th) for most of Germany.  This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up.  Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe.  Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week. 
 
In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union.  Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.  
 
Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.
 
*Courtesy Weather Trends International (click for larger image)
 
As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.

 

 

Demand Will Peak Late in the Week

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.

The NAO is currently weak negative and is forecast to become almost neutral over the next 5-7 days. There is good model agreement in the short term but after day 7 the model starts to diverge. November has been pretty much neutral NAO to this point and the next 2 weeks will determine where the monthly value will fall. 
 
As a side note, if you frequent this site and would like a certain geographic region covered that has not been covered (and is in the EU) please leave a comment or e-mail me at dodonnell@wxtrends.com and I will make an effort to include it more thoroughly in future posts. 

Cold, Blustery Weather Next Week

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Temperatures across Europe have been up and down over the past few weeks and that trend looks like it will continue through into next week. Temperatures Wednesday were in the low 20’s in southeastern Europe lowering heating demand greatly. In southern Germany temps reached into the upper teens but this will all begin to change over the next week. By the 11th of November temperatures will be in the single digits in these warm areas.
 
As the energy demands rise, so will the wind speeds.  Winds have been quite calm over the past week or two but that will come to an end over the next week.  The system bringing the cold air will also bring strong winds, especially to northern Germany and the Netherlands. Gusts could be as high as 40 knots with steady winds as high as 25 knots in some regions. Coal prices could be hit as some of the strongest winds of the season will increase production from the wind farms.
http://www.windfinder.com

Image: http://www.windfinder.com

Warmer Weather in Store for Most of Continent

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Over the next week or so much of the continent will experience a significant warming. Parts of southwestern Germany will see temperatures in the low single digits tomorrow and possibly warming to the teens late next week. There will be some rainy periods in the mix with southern France and north western Italy having rain falling most of the week. 

 
The American GFS model is trending towards a negative NAO in the coming weeks which could change some November outlooks and even some winter outlooks as the November NAO can be a precursor to winter weather. It also has an influence on wind magnitude in central Europe. Winds will be out of the east at 6-14 knots until Wednesday, at that time winds will diminish a bit. Wind energy production will be at its peak early in the week. 
 
Below are the minimum temperatures for the EU through 11th November 2008.
 
 
 

 

 

Calm Weekend before Wild Weather Arrives Early Next Week

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008
This weekend looks to be quite calm with temperatures near or just below normal. Winds will be light and out of the west bring some milder conditions than what has been seen earlier this week. Heating demand this weekend will be low across much of Europe but that will change next week as a trough will begin to dig into central Europe bring cool gusty conditions.   
 
Winds throughout the UK will be very wet and windy especially Saturday. This weather will begin to spread southward as the weekend progresses bringing the sour weather into London Sunday and Monday. Following the precipitation, conditions will be blustery and cool. The front will be crossing the North Sea on Sunday and will bring the cool rain and blustery conditions into Northern Germany on Monday (see animation below). Winds will be strong with this system so electricity production will be high on the many wind farms in Germany, coal prices should come down some as energy production ramps up. 
 

 
This cold weather will carry right over into November which will start a cooler than normal month. HDD values are forecast to be about 4% higher than last year in Berlin. Similar trends will be seen in London, Paris and Madrid. Further south and east, HDD values will be very similar to slightly below the values observed last year for the month of November.    A full November outlook will be issued the middle of next week.

 

Cold front bringing rain and windy conditions

Monday, October 20th, 2008

 

A cool front currently over the UK will be moving into the mainland over the next two days.   This will finally bring some below normal readings though much of Western Europe. Paris could see 2 weeks of below normal conditions. Rome will not see extended below normal temperatures until the middle of next week. As this system makes its way across the continent it should bring moderate winds to the German wind farms. Wind energy producers should enjoy this time of the year. Each of these systems brings with it the potential of steady wind, especially to the farms closest to the northern coast of Germany.  

 

 

Along with the cool air, the front will bring precipitation to much of the continent. In the map above you can see the elongated region of rain from Central Spain all the way into Western Russia. The Alps will see some snow associated with the precipitation but not much in areas of dense population.   

 

 

Windy, Rainy Conditions Next Week

Friday, October 17th, 2008

Tropical Storm Omar continues its movement to the north and is expected to impact European weather early next week. Remnants of Omar will bring rain and wind to the UK and northern Europe Monday into Tuesday. The UK will see very windy conditions and some moderate to heavy rain. Northern Scotland could even see some wintry precipitation mixed in. As the system moves east, winds will increase in North East Germany. Winds will be greater than 10knots and as high as 15 knots in the more northern wind farms. Following a brief lull late Tuesday into Wednesday winds could again increase to greater than 10knots come late in the week into the weekend. Coal prices could take a hit as we enter a windy period over the next few weeks. 

 
Temperatures across Europe are still close to normal with an occasional below normal. As some rain moves into central Europe, cloud clover will bring low temperatures up causing a decrease in heating demand. Moderate rainfall is expected in Southern France and into the East Central region of Germany.