Posts Tagged ‘wind energy output’

Turbine Output to Increase This Weekend

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw.  This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14th) for most of Germany.  This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up.  Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe.  Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week. 
 
In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union.  Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.  
 
Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.
 
*Courtesy Weather Trends International (click for larger image)
 
As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.

 

 

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Arctic Air Grips Much of Europe. Heating Demand Rises

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

 

Happy New Year and welcome to 2009. 
 
Conditions over much of Europe have been well below normal recently with the mercury not rising above zero in much of Eastern Europe. In fact, Berlin has been almost 10o C BELOW normal and more than 12oC below last years values. Temperatures have been as low as -13o C with high temperatures reaching only -7oC. In fact, Berlin is forecast to be well below normal for at least the next week. Other EU countries will also be experiencing the cold weather over the next week including France and the UK. Heating Demand will spike today (January 8th) but will remain high over the next few days. 
 
Winds in Northern Germany will be in the 6-10 knot range but will begin to ease through the coming days. Wind energy output peaked on January 4th at around 9000 MW and has not been able to rise above 5000 MW since. High heating demands and the low energy outputs from the wind warms should boost coal prices over the next few days. 
 
Several squalls will be entering into the North Sea over the next week and should aid wind farms in Scandinavia and even Northern UK. Impacts on North Sea Oil platforms are yet to be seen but winds will be in excess of 50kts in some parts of the region. 
 

 

 

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Wind Calms, Heating Demand Rises

Monday, December 22nd, 2008

 

Power production by the German wind farms has been up a good amount over the past 3 days peaking at more than 14,000 megawatts on the 20th.  Over the next 48-72 hours the winds will begin to calm decreasing energy output and giving coal prices a boost. 
 

 

As the winds calm in Germany, temperatures across the continent will cool. High temperatures will start in the double digits in much of France and Germany Monday but will drop into the low single digits in France and below zero in Eastern Europe. High heating demand along with the calm winds should give coal prices a big boost during the holiday week. 

 
 
 

 

 

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Wind Energy Output Down in Germany

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most highly correlated teleconnection indices used in forecasting temperatures in Europe and the Eastern United States.  It is the anomalies of the polar low typically centered over Iceland and the sup-tropical low usually in the area of the Azores.  Positive values indicate stronger than normal pressure anomalies while a negative NAO is the opposite. Although the NAO is present in summer months it is predominantly used in the winter when it has the most impact on the northern hemisphere jet-stream. 

Although we’re not in true winter just yet, the NAO index will play a large role in European weather. In the short term (3-7 days) a positive NAO is forecast, with the strong pressure gradients we anticipate stronger winds across the Northern North Sea. It is still too early to tell if the strong winds will be enough to disrupt oil production in the region. Winds are forecast to be up to 45 knots with high seas in some areas of the North Sea for the middle of next week.  Unfortunately for the wind farms in Germany, the winds have been fairly calm as of late and wind farm output has dropped to around 3,000MW from a peak of close to 15,000 MW on Tuesday. 
 
In the mid-range of the models (around 10-14 days) the NAO is forecast to go more negative bringing cooler temperatures to North Europe. This should also bring some increased winds to mainland Europe, although the winds will not be anything near what the North Sea is forecast to experience. 

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