EU Energy Weather

As spring approaches energy demand across much of Europe will begin to decrease as consumers turn off their heat in favor of open windows. In conjunction with the normal warming of temperatures a warming trend over the next 3 weeks will lessen the amount of time consumers need their heat.  Heating degree values for the UK as a whole as well as for London can be seen in the graphic below. For those with access this table can be replicated and expanded in the myskeye.com energy planner tool. 

 

 

 

April will be off to a cool start before again warming. This is positive for the retailers of the nation as consumers head out to purchase their spring apparel but energy prices could take a hit due to the decrease in demand. Heating degree days looks to be down almost 6% for the month of April for the UK as a whole. 

The heaviest snow since 1991 fell in the UK today prompting almost 20% of the British workforce to stay home.  20 cm of snow fell in parts of London over night causing an almost complete shutdown of the mass transit system in the city. The economic impacts are estimated to be greater than 1.5 billion pounds due to consumers not venturing outside and workers not being able to get to work.  

 

Due to the number of workers staying home heating demand rose drastically; Bloomberg reports that the “U.K. natural-gas for delivery today fell….as shippers boosted supplies, which may exceed demand through 6 a.m. London time tomorrow”.   Demand is at its highest level since January 10^th. In conjunction with the fall in gas prices power prices have also fallen for the second day in a row and March power contracts have fallen as much as 3.7 percent.  

 

In the short term, temperatures in London are expected to rebound above freezing but will still be 2-4 degrees cooler than normal.  In fact, there is not a single day in the month of February that is forecast to be above normal. To make matters worse, light snow is forecast for the next 5-7 days in the region which could hamper the clean up process. Travel should be back to normal levels by Wednesday but due to the cold wet conditions foot fall will be decreased.