November Outlook
Wednesday, October 29th, 2008November, like October, is a transition month with temperatures fluctuating frequently with large swings from cool to warm weather. Unlike October though, the cool weather will win many more of the battles. Snowfall will increase in Scandinavia and the northern UK and the alpine region. This year however the cool weather will win even more.
Sea surface temperatures are almost 1.5C lower than normal in the North Sea and about 0.5C lower in the Mediterranean. This cooler SST will affect temperatures on the mainland as system approach from these cold spots. Weather in the U.K. will be particularly affected as we are forecasting the second coldest November in 8 years. Spain will see the coldest November in 7 years. Other countries in the EU will also see cool temperatures which will increase heating demand across much of the continent.
Other indicators are also pointing to a cold November including the current MJO phase. It is forecast to go into phases 7,8 and 1 which points towards a cold western Europe. The models have been inconsistent at best recently so this needs to be watch very closely in the coming weeks. Aiding all of the cold air talk is the fact that the sun has not had a spot on it for weeks. We are in an extended period of the solar minimum, and in fact this year could have the most spotless days in a century.
The NAO remains a mystery for the month of November. Current outlooks are fuzzy at best but look to be trending slightly positive for the start of November. If the index remains positive we could see winds slightly above normal for most of the month increasing energy production in the many wind farms across Europe.
Please check back tomorrow for the 7 day forecast across the EU.