Wind Energy Output Down in Germany
Thursday, November 13th, 2008The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most highly correlated teleconnection indices used in forecasting temperatures in Europe and the Eastern United States. It is the anomalies of the polar low typically centered over Iceland and the sup-tropical low usually in the area of the Azores. Positive values indicate stronger than normal pressure anomalies while a negative NAO is the opposite. Although the NAO is present in summer months it is predominantly used in the winter when it has the most impact on the northern hemisphere jet-stream.
Although we’re not in true winter just yet, the NAO index will play a large role in European weather. In the short term (3-7 days) a positive NAO is forecast, with the strong pressure gradients we anticipate stronger winds across the Northern North Sea. It is still too early to tell if the strong winds will be enough to disrupt oil production in the region. Winds are forecast to be up to 45 knots with high seas in some areas of the North Sea for the middle of next week. Unfortunately for the wind farms in Germany, the winds have been fairly calm as of late and wind farm output has dropped to around 3,000MW from a peak of close to 15,000 MW on Tuesday.
In the mid-range of the models (around 10-14 days) the NAO is forecast to go more negative bringing cooler temperatures to North Europe. This should also bring some increased winds to mainland Europe, although the winds will not be anything near what the North Sea is forecast to experience.