EU Energy Weather

Although this week is starting off on the cool side, temperatures will being to find their way back to normal by late in the week. In fact temperatures will be about 4 degrees warmer than last year in Berlin before going back to cooler than normal temps. The chart below shows the temperature trends starting last week and the 2 week forecast for some of the major cities in Europe. In the temperature fields, dark blue represents much colder, light blue is cooler, gray is similar, orange is warmer, and red is much warmer. For the precipitation column, dark green is much wetter, light green is wetter, gray is similar, yellow is drier and orange is much drier. 

 

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most highly correlated teleconnection indices used in forecasting temperatures in Europe and the Eastern United States.  It is the anomalies of the polar low typically centered over Iceland and the sup-tropical low usually in the area of the Azores.  Positive values indicate stronger than normal pressure anomalies while a negative NAO is the opposite. Although the NAO is present in summer months it is predominantly used in the winter when it has the most impact on the northern hemisphere jet-stream. 

Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.

Over the next week or so much of the continent will experience a significant warming. Parts of southwestern Germany will see temperatures in the low single digits tomorrow and possibly warming to the teens late next week. There will be some rainy periods in the mix with southern France and north western Italy having rain falling most of the week.