Posts Tagged ‘heating demand’

Heaviest Snowfall in 19 Years Negativly Impacts British Economy

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

 

The heaviest snow since 1991 fell in the UK today prompting almost 20% of the British workforce to stay home.  20 cm of snow fell in parts of London over night causing an almost complete shutdown of the mass transit system in the city. The economic impacts are estimated to be greater than 1.5 billion pounds due to consumers not venturing outside and workers not being able to get to work.  
 
Due to the number of workers staying home heating demand rose drastically; Bloomberg reports that the “U.K. natural-gas for delivery today fell….as shippers boosted supplies, which may exceed demand through 6 a.m. London time tomorrow”.   Demand is at its highest level since January 10th. In conjunction with the fall in gas prices power prices have also fallen for the second day in a row and March power contracts have fallen as much as 3.7 percent.  
 
In the short term, temperatures in London are expected to rebound above freezing but will still be 2-4 degrees cooler than normal.  In fact, there is not a single day in the month of February that is forecast to be above normal. To make matters worse, light snow is forecast for the next 5-7 days in the region which could hamper the clean up process. Travel should be back to normal levels by Wednesday but due to the cold wet conditions foot fall will be decreased.  

UK temperature and Precipitation Vs. Normal February 2009

 

 

Demand Will Peak Late in the Week

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.

The NAO is currently weak negative and is forecast to become almost neutral over the next 5-7 days. There is good model agreement in the short term but after day 7 the model starts to diverge. November has been pretty much neutral NAO to this point and the next 2 weeks will determine where the monthly value will fall. 
 
As a side note, if you frequent this site and would like a certain geographic region covered that has not been covered (and is in the EU) please leave a comment or e-mail me at dodonnell@wxtrends.com and I will make an effort to include it more thoroughly in future posts.