Posts Tagged ‘HDD’
Monday, March 9th, 2009
As spring approaches energy demand across much of Europe will begin to decrease as consumers turn off their heat in favor of open windows. In conjunction with the normal warming of temperatures a warming trend over the next 3 weeks will lessen the amount of time consumers need their heat. Heating degree values for the UK as a whole as well as for London can be seen in the graphic below. For those with access this table can be replicated and expanded in the myskeye.com energy planner tool.
April will be off to a cool start before again warming. This is positive for the retailers of the nation as consumers head out to purchase their spring apparel but energy prices could take a hit due to the decrease in demand. Heating degree days looks to be down almost 6% for the month of April for the UK as a whole.
Tags: HDD, Uk, United Kingdom Energy, Warmth
Posted in Europe Weather, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw. This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14th) for most of Germany. This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up. Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe. Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week.
In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union. Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.
Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.
*Courtesy Weather Trends International (click for larger image)
As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.
Tags: EU HDD, German Wind Energy, Germany, HDD, Short Term Forecast, Wind, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Thursday, January 8th, 2009
Happy New Year and welcome to 2009.
Conditions over much of Europe have been well below normal recently with the mercury not rising above zero in much of Eastern Europe. In fact, Berlin has been almost 10o C BELOW normal and more than 12oC below last years values. Temperatures have been as low as -13o C with high temperatures reaching only -7oC. In fact, Berlin is forecast to be well below normal for at least the next week. Other EU countries will also be experiencing the cold weather over the next week including France and the UK. Heating Demand will spike today (January 8th) but will remain high over the next few days.
Winds in Northern Germany will be in the 6-10 knot range but will begin to ease through the coming days. Wind energy output peaked on January 4th at around 9000 MW and has not been able to rise above 5000 MW since. High heating demands and the low energy outputs from the wind warms should boost coal prices over the next few days.
Several squalls will be entering into the North Sea over the next week and should aid wind farms in Scandinavia and even Northern UK. Impacts on North Sea Oil platforms are yet to be seen but winds will be in excess of 50kts in some parts of the region.
Tags: EU Energy, EU HDD, europe cold, Europe Temps, Europe Weather, HDD, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Monday, November 10th, 2008
Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.
The NAO is currently weak negative and is forecast to become almost neutral over the next 5-7 days. There is good model agreement in the short term but after day 7 the model starts to diverge. November has been pretty much neutral NAO to this point and the next 2 weeks will determine where the monthly value will fall.
As a side note, if you frequent this site and would like a certain geographic region covered that has not been covered (and is in the EU) please leave a comment or e-mail me at
dodonnell@wxtrends.com and I will make an effort to include it more thoroughly in future posts.
Tags: cold front, HDD, heating demand, NAO, Wind
Posted in Europe Weather, Short Term Forecast, Uncategorized | No Comments »
Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Temperatures across Europe have been up and down over the past few weeks and that trend looks like it will continue through into next week. Temperatures Wednesday were in the low 20’s in southeastern Europe lowering heating demand greatly. In southern Germany temps reached into the upper teens but this will all begin to change over the next week. By the 11th of November temperatures will be in the single digits in these warm areas.
As the energy demands rise, so will the wind speeds. Winds have been quite calm over the past week or two but that will come to an end over the next week. The system bringing the cold air will also bring strong winds, especially to northern Germany and the Netherlands. Gusts could be as high as 40 knots with steady winds as high as 25 knots in some regions. Coal prices could be hit as some of the strongest winds of the season will increase production from the wind farms.
Image: http://www.windfinder.com
Tags: Cold, HDD, Wind
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Thursday, October 23rd, 2008
This weekend looks to be quite calm with temperatures near or just below normal. Winds will be light and out of the west bring some milder conditions than what has been seen earlier this week. Heating demand this weekend will be low across much of Europe but that will change next week as a trough will begin to dig into central Europe bring cool gusty conditions.
Winds throughout the UK will be very wet and windy especially Saturday. This weather will begin to spread southward as the weekend progresses bringing the sour weather into London Sunday and Monday. Following the precipitation, conditions will be blustery and cool. The front will be crossing the North Sea on Sunday and will bring the cool rain and blustery conditions into Northern Germany on Monday (see animation below). Winds will be strong with this system so electricity production will be high on the many wind farms in Germany, coal prices should come down some as energy production ramps up.
This cold weather will carry right over into November which will start a cooler than normal month. HDD values are forecast to be about 4% higher than last year in Berlin. Similar trends will be seen in London, Paris and Madrid. Further south and east, HDD values will be very similar to slightly below the values observed last year for the month of November. A full November outlook will be issued the middle of next week.
Tags: Cold, HDD, Wind
Posted in Europe Weather, Month Outlook, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Wednesday, October 15th, 2008
With hurricane season winding down, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made some questionable decisions in naming storms; the most recent example is the naming of Nana. This storm formed then dissipated faster than the recent rally on Wall Street. There are several theories as to why they are naming questionable storms, none of which I will get into here, but it is worth mentioning to prevent getting sucked in with the number of storms in a season. In fact, this year threatens to break last year’s record of the fewest tropical cyclone days in the Northern Hemisphere.
Of course, the number of cyclone days will not make much of a difference as it only takes one or two storms to hinder petroleum production. Currently, there are 2 systems of interest in the Caribbean, neither of which will impact the production region. Hurricane Omar has developed, as predicted, southeast of Puerto Rico and is forecast to head north into the open Atlantic. Its remnants will be worth watching as they could play a role in European weather next week. Tropical Depression 16 has formed just east of Honduras and is forecast to move west over the next 24 hours. Naming of this system SHOULD NOT happen but as we’ve seen in the past, it is not out of the question.
Temperatures across the continent will see a slight cooling period as a trough moves in from the northwest. Heating demand will see a boost over the next 24-72 hours in central Europe. Eastern Germany could see highs in the single digits in some locations while Berlin will see highs around 12 C Friday through Sunday. London will see below average temperatures through the weekend before warming back up early next week. Omar impacts could throw a wrench in this forecast as the final track is not yet fully known.
Tags: Europe Temps, HDD, Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nana, Tropical Storm Omar, Tropics
Posted in Europe Weather, Tropical Atlantic | No Comments »
Friday, October 10th, 2008
Tropical activity is still non-existent right now but there are some areas of investigation. The most prominent is still in the middle of the Atlantic and any threat to the production region is low. Historically, storm development this time of year is confined to the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
As expected, NAO values are beginning to trend neutral and should go positive shortly. A positive NAO typically leads to a warm dry weather in much of southern Europe while the UK and Scandinavia are typically warm and wet. Its impact is most relevant in the winter months as the Icelandic low and Bermuda high help direct storms into northern Europe.
Temperatures this weekend, and even into next week, will be well above normal for much of the continent. Berlin, Paris, and Madrid will all have high temperatures 2-4 C above normal. Heating demand will suffer as the temperatures rise. A frontal system will be coming in from the Atlantic bringing with is some rain into Spain as well as some potential thunderstorms. Also with this approaching system, strong winds will be observed throughout southern Spain.
Tags: HDD, NAO, Tropics
Posted in Europe Weather, Tropical Atlantic, Uncategorized | No Comments »
