EU Energy Weather

Although this week is starting off on the cool side, temperatures will being to find their way back to normal by late in the week. In fact temperatures will be about 4 degrees warmer than last year in Berlin before going back to cooler than normal temps. The chart below shows the temperature trends starting last week and the 2 week forecast for some of the major cities in Europe. In the temperature fields, dark blue represents much colder, light blue is cooler, gray is similar, orange is warmer, and red is much warmer. For the precipitation column, dark green is much wetter, light green is wetter, gray is similar, yellow is drier and orange is much drier. 

 

A cool front currently over the UK will be moving into the mainland over the next two days.   This will finally bring some below normal readings though much of Western Europe. Paris could see 2 weeks of below normal conditions. Rome will not see extended below normal temperatures until the middle of next week. As this system makes its way across the continent it should bring moderate winds to the German wind farms. Wind energy producers should enjoy this time of the year. Each of these systems brings with it the potential of steady wind, especially to the farms closest to the northern coast of Germany.  

Along with the cool air, the front will bring precipitation to much of the continent. In the map above you can see the elongated region of rain from Central Spain all the way into Western Russia. The Alps will see some snow associated with the precipitation but not much in areas of dense population.   

Tropical Storm Omar continues its movement to the north and is expected to impact European weather early next week. Remnants of Omar will bring rain and wind to the UK and northern Europe Monday into Tuesday. The UK will see very windy conditions and some moderate to heavy rain. Northern Scotland could even see some wintry precipitation mixed in. As the system moves east, winds will increase in North East Germany. Winds will be greater than 10knots and as high as 15 knots in the more northern wind farms. Following a brief lull late Tuesday into Wednesday winds could again increase to greater than 10knots come late in the week into the weekend. Coal prices could take a hit as we enter a windy period over the next few weeks. 

With hurricane season winding down, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made some questionable decisions in naming storms; the most recent example is the naming of Nana. This storm formed then dissipated faster than the recent rally on Wall Street. There are several theories as to why they are naming questionable storms, none of which I will get into here, but it is worth mentioning to prevent getting sucked in with the number of storms in a season. In fact, this year threatens to break last year’s record of the fewest tropical cyclone days in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Of course, the number of cyclone days will not make much of a difference as it only takes one or two storms to hinder petroleum production. Currently, there are 2 systems of interest in the Caribbean, neither of which will impact the production region. Hurricane Omar has developed, as predicted, southeast of Puerto Rico and is forecast to head north into the open Atlantic. Its remnants will be worth watching as they could play a role in European weather next week.  Tropical Depression 16 has formed just east of Honduras and is forecast to move west over the next 24 hours. Naming of this system SHOULD NOT happen but as we’ve seen in the past, it is not out of the question. 

Temperatures across the continent will see a slight cooling period as a trough moves in from the northwest. Heating demand will see a boost over the next 24-72 hours in central Europe. Eastern Germany could see highs in the single digits in some locations while Berlin will see highs around 12 C Friday through Sunday.  London will see below average temperatures through the weekend before warming back up early next week. Omar impacts could throw a wrench in this forecast as the final track is not yet fully known.