EU Energy Weather

Power production by the German wind farms has been up a good amount over the past 3 days peaking at more than 14,000 megawatts on the 20^th.  Over the next 48-72 hours the winds will begin to calm decreasing energy output and giving coal prices a boost. 

 

 

 

 

 

Temperatures across Europe have been up and down over the past few weeks and that trend looks like it will continue through into next week. Temperatures Wednesday were in the low 20’s in southeastern Europe lowering heating demand greatly. In southern Germany temps reached into the upper teens but this will all begin to change over the next week. By the 11^th of November temperatures will be in the single digits in these warm areas.

 

As the energy demands rise, so will the wind speeds.  Winds have been quite calm over the past week or two but that will come to an end over the next week.  The system bringing the cold air will also bring strong winds, especially to northern Germany and the Netherlands. Gusts could be as high as 40 knots with steady winds as high as 25 knots in some regions. Coal prices could be hit as some of the strongest winds of the season will increase production from the wind farms.

This weekend looks to be quite calm with temperatures near or just below normal. Winds will be light and out of the west bring some milder conditions than what has been seen earlier this week. Heating demand this weekend will be low across much of Europe but that will change next week as a trough will begin to dig into central Europe bring cool gusty conditions.   

 

Winds throughout the UK will be very wet and windy especially Saturday. This weather will begin to spread southward as the weekend progresses bringing the sour weather into London Sunday and Monday. Following the precipitation, conditions will be blustery and cool. The front will be crossing the North Sea on Sunday and will bring the cool rain and blustery conditions into Northern Germany on Monday (see animation below). Winds will be strong with this system so electricity production will be high on the many wind farms in Germany, coal prices should come down some as energy production ramps up. 

 

 

This cold weather will carry right over into November which will start a cooler than normal month. HDD values are forecast to be about 4% higher than last year in Berlin. Similar trends will be seen in London, Paris and Madrid. Further south and east, HDD values will be very similar to slightly below the values observed last year for the month of November.    A full November outlook will be issued the middle of next week.