Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Demand Will Peak Late in the Week

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.

The NAO is currently weak negative and is forecast to become almost neutral over the next 5-7 days. There is good model agreement in the short term but after day 7 the model starts to diverge. November has been pretty much neutral NAO to this point and the next 2 weeks will determine where the monthly value will fall. 
 
As a side note, if you frequent this site and would like a certain geographic region covered that has not been covered (and is in the EU) please leave a comment or e-mail me at dodonnell@wxtrends.com and I will make an effort to include it more thoroughly in future posts. 

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Europe Weather, Short Term Forecast, Uncategorized | No Comments »

November Outlook

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

November, like October, is a transition month with temperatures fluctuating frequently with large swings from cool to warm weather. Unlike October though, the cool weather will win many more of the battles. Snowfall will increase in Scandinavia and the northern UK and the alpine region. This year however the cool weather will win even more.

 
Sea surface temperatures are almost 1.5C lower than normal in the North Sea and about 0.5C lower in the Mediterranean. This cooler SST will affect temperatures on the mainland as system approach from these cold spots. Weather in the U.K. will be particularly affected as we are forecasting the second coldest November in 8 years. Spain will see the coldest November in 7 years. Other countries in the EU will also see cool temperatures which will increase heating demand across much of the continent. 
 
Other indicators are also pointing to a cold November including the current MJO phase. It is forecast to go into phases 7,8 and 1 which points towards a cold western Europe. The models have been inconsistent at best recently so this needs to be watch very closely in the coming weeks. Aiding all of the cold air talk is the fact that the sun has not had a spot on it for weeks. We are in an extended period of the solar minimum, and in fact this year could have the most spotless days in a century.
 
The NAO remains a mystery for the month of November. Current outlooks are fuzzy at best but look to be trending slightly positive for the start of November. If the index remains positive we could see winds slightly above normal for most of the month increasing energy production in the many wind farms across Europe. 
 
Please check back tomorrow for the 7 day forecast across the EU.

 

 

Tags: , ,
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Month Outlook, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Warm Temperatures Hurt Heating Demand

Friday, October 10th, 2008
Tropical activity is still non-existent right now but there are some areas of investigation. The most prominent is still in the middle of the Atlantic and any threat to the production region is low. Historically, storm development this time of year is confined to the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. 
 
As expected, NAO values are beginning to trend neutral and should go positive shortly. A positive NAO typically leads to a warm dry weather in much of southern Europe while the UK and Scandinavia are typically warm and wet. Its impact is most relevant in the winter months as the Icelandic low and Bermuda high help direct storms into northern Europe. 
 
NAO through Oct. 10
 
 
Temperatures this weekend, and even into next week, will be well above normal for much of the continent. Berlin, Paris, and Madrid will all have high temperatures 2-4 C above normal. Heating demand will suffer as the temperatures rise. A frontal system will be coming in from the Atlantic bringing with is some rain into Spain as well as some potential thunderstorms. Also with this approaching system, strong winds will be observed throughout southern Spain.

 

Tags: , ,
Posted in Europe Weather, Tropical Atlantic, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Cooling will diminish giving way to heat come the weekend.

Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

As October moves towards the half-way point, tropical storm threats will die down, temperatures will begin to cool and the influence of the NAO will increase. In the short term, there is no threat of tropical storms influencing the production region but with the official end of hurricane season still a few weeks off we will continue to monitor the situation. After being positive almost all of September, the NAO has been negative the past week or so. Current computer models trend the pattern towards the positive over the next 5-7 days which should bring a shift to the overall weather pattern across much of Europe.

In the short term, temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula will begin to cool down as the week comes to an end but will warm up nicely into the weekend. In the UK, temperatures will be in the low teens for most of the Nation. Cool wet weather will increase heating demand especially in the north. As we enter the weekend, warm weather will begin to take hold across much of the mainland. Italy, Southern France, and Germany will be slightly above normal, while Eastern Europe will be quite cool, increasing heating demand for much of the region.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »