Archive for the ‘Short Term Forecast’ Category
Monday, March 9th, 2009
As spring approaches energy demand across much of Europe will begin to decrease as consumers turn off their heat in favor of open windows. In conjunction with the normal warming of temperatures a warming trend over the next 3 weeks will lessen the amount of time consumers need their heat. Heating degree values for the UK as a whole as well as for London can be seen in the graphic below. For those with access this table can be replicated and expanded in the myskeye.com energy planner tool.
April will be off to a cool start before again warming. This is positive for the retailers of the nation as consumers head out to purchase their spring apparel but energy prices could take a hit due to the decrease in demand. Heating degree days looks to be down almost 6% for the month of April for the UK as a whole.
Tags: HDD, Uk, United Kingdom Energy, Warmth
Posted in Europe Weather, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Monday, February 2nd, 2009
The heaviest snow since 1991 fell in the UK today prompting almost 20% of the British workforce to stay home. 20 cm of snow fell in parts of London over night causing an almost complete shutdown of the mass transit system in the city. The economic impacts are estimated to be greater than 1.5 billion pounds due to consumers not venturing outside and workers not being able to get to work.
Due to the number of workers staying home heating demand rose drastically; Bloomberg reports that the “U.K. natural-gas for delivery today fell….as shippers boosted supplies, which may exceed demand through 6 a.m. London time tomorrow”. Demand is at its highest level since January 10th. In conjunction with the fall in gas prices power prices have also fallen for the second day in a row and March power contracts have fallen as much as 3.7 percent.
In the short term, temperatures in London are expected to rebound above freezing but will still be 2-4 degrees cooler than normal. In fact, there is not a single day in the month of February that is forecast to be above normal. To make matters worse, light snow is forecast for the next 5-7 days in the region which could hamper the clean up process. Travel should be back to normal levels by Wednesday but due to the cold wet conditions foot fall will be decreased.
UK temperature and Precipitation Vs. Normal February 2009
Tags: British Energy, British Snow, heating demand, Uk, UK short term, UK snow, UK weather, United Kingdom Weather
Posted in Europe Weather, Month Outlook, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw. This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14th) for most of Germany. This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up. Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe. Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week.
In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union. Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.
Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.
*Courtesy Weather Trends International (click for larger image)
As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.
Tags: EU HDD, German Wind Energy, Germany, HDD, Short Term Forecast, Wind, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Thursday, January 8th, 2009
Happy New Year and welcome to 2009.
Conditions over much of Europe have been well below normal recently with the mercury not rising above zero in much of Eastern Europe. In fact, Berlin has been almost 10o C BELOW normal and more than 12oC below last years values. Temperatures have been as low as -13o C with high temperatures reaching only -7oC. In fact, Berlin is forecast to be well below normal for at least the next week. Other EU countries will also be experiencing the cold weather over the next week including France and the UK. Heating Demand will spike today (January 8th) but will remain high over the next few days.
Winds in Northern Germany will be in the 6-10 knot range but will begin to ease through the coming days. Wind energy output peaked on January 4th at around 9000 MW and has not been able to rise above 5000 MW since. High heating demands and the low energy outputs from the wind warms should boost coal prices over the next few days.
Several squalls will be entering into the North Sea over the next week and should aid wind farms in Scandinavia and even Northern UK. Impacts on North Sea Oil platforms are yet to be seen but winds will be in excess of 50kts in some parts of the region.
Tags: EU Energy, EU HDD, europe cold, Europe Temps, Europe Weather, HDD, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Monday, December 22nd, 2008
Power production by the German wind farms has been up a good amount over the past 3 days peaking at more than 14,000 megawatts on the 20th. Over the next 48-72 hours the winds will begin to calm decreasing energy output and giving coal prices a boost.
As the winds calm in Germany, temperatures across the continent will cool. High temperatures will start in the double digits in much of France and Germany Monday but will drop into the low single digits in France and below zero in Eastern Europe. High heating demand along with the calm winds should give coal prices a big boost during the holiday week.
Tags: Cold, Germany, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Tuesday, November 25th, 2008
Although this week is starting off on the cool side, temperatures will being to find their way back to normal by late in the week. In fact temperatures will be about 4 degrees warmer than last year in Berlin before going back to cooler than normal temps. The chart below shows the temperature trends starting last week and the 2 week forecast for some of the major cities in Europe. In the temperature fields, dark blue represents much colder, light blue is cooler, gray is similar, orange is warmer, and red is much warmer. For the precipitation column, dark green is much wetter, light green is wetter, gray is similar, yellow is drier and orange is much drier.
As we enter December, cooler weather will begin to dominate much of the continent which is expected for a negative NAO. As forecasted, the NAO is trending more negative and is forecast to go greatly negative for the end of November before starting to head toward zero through the first half of December.
Tags: Europe Temps, NAO
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Thursday, November 13th, 2008
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most highly correlated teleconnection indices used in forecasting temperatures in Europe and the Eastern United States. It is the anomalies of the polar low typically centered over Iceland and the sup-tropical low usually in the area of the Azores. Positive values indicate stronger than normal pressure anomalies while a negative NAO is the opposite. Although the NAO is present in summer months it is predominantly used in the winter when it has the most impact on the northern hemisphere jet-stream.
Although we’re not in true winter just yet, the NAO index will play a large role in European weather. In the short term (3-7 days) a positive NAO is forecast, with the strong pressure gradients we anticipate stronger winds across the Northern North Sea. It is still too early to tell if the strong winds will be enough to disrupt oil production in the region. Winds are forecast to be up to 45 knots with high seas in some areas of the North Sea for the middle of next week. Unfortunately for the wind farms in Germany, the winds have been fairly calm as of late and wind farm output has dropped to around 3,000MW from a peak of close to 15,000 MW on Tuesday.
In the mid-range of the models (around 10-14 days) the NAO is forecast to go more negative bringing cooler temperatures to North Europe. This should also bring some increased winds to mainland Europe, although the winds will not be anything near what the North Sea is forecast to experience.
Tags: NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Sea Oil Production, North Sea Storm, Positive NAO, wind energy output
Posted in Europe Weather, North Sea Oil Production, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Monday, November 10th, 2008
Heating demand will rise as the week progresses, until it peaks on Friday. A cold front, presently situated in northern Europe, will slowly make its way southwest bringing with it cooler temperatures and rain. Following the passage of this system, winds will begin to calm and temperatures will start to rise a bit. Coal prices could see a slight rebound due to the lower energy output from the wind farms. Heating demand across much of the continent will decrease at least for the short term.
The NAO is currently weak negative and is forecast to become almost neutral over the next 5-7 days. There is good model agreement in the short term but after day 7 the model starts to diverge. November has been pretty much neutral NAO to this point and the next 2 weeks will determine where the monthly value will fall.
As a side note, if you frequent this site and would like a certain geographic region covered that has not been covered (and is in the EU) please leave a comment or e-mail me at
dodonnell@wxtrends.com and I will make an effort to include it more thoroughly in future posts.
Tags: cold front, HDD, heating demand, NAO, Wind
Posted in Europe Weather, Short Term Forecast, Uncategorized | No Comments »
Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Temperatures across Europe have been up and down over the past few weeks and that trend looks like it will continue through into next week. Temperatures Wednesday were in the low 20’s in southeastern Europe lowering heating demand greatly. In southern Germany temps reached into the upper teens but this will all begin to change over the next week. By the 11th of November temperatures will be in the single digits in these warm areas.
As the energy demands rise, so will the wind speeds. Winds have been quite calm over the past week or two but that will come to an end over the next week. The system bringing the cold air will also bring strong winds, especially to northern Germany and the Netherlands. Gusts could be as high as 40 knots with steady winds as high as 25 knots in some regions. Coal prices could be hit as some of the strongest winds of the season will increase production from the wind farms.
Image: http://www.windfinder.com
Tags: Cold, HDD, Wind
Posted in Europe Weather, Germany, Short Term Forecast | No Comments »
Thursday, October 30th, 2008
Over the next week or so much of the continent will experience a significant warming. Parts of southwestern Germany will see temperatures in the low single digits tomorrow and possibly warming to the teens late next week. There will be some rainy periods in the mix with southern France and north western Italy having rain falling most of the week.
The American GFS model is trending towards a negative NAO in the coming weeks which could change some November outlooks and even some winter outlooks as the November NAO can be a precursor to winter weather. It also has an influence on wind magnitude in central Europe. Winds will be out of the east at 6-14 knots until Wednesday, at that time winds will diminish a bit. Wind energy production will be at its peak early in the week.
Below are the minimum temperatures for the EU through 11th November 2008.
Tags: NAO, temperatures, warm, Wind
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