Archive for the ‘Month Outlook’ Category

Heaviest Snowfall in 19 Years Negativly Impacts British Economy

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

 

The heaviest snow since 1991 fell in the UK today prompting almost 20% of the British workforce to stay home.  20 cm of snow fell in parts of London over night causing an almost complete shutdown of the mass transit system in the city. The economic impacts are estimated to be greater than 1.5 billion pounds due to consumers not venturing outside and workers not being able to get to work.  
 
Due to the number of workers staying home heating demand rose drastically; Bloomberg reports that the “U.K. natural-gas for delivery today fell….as shippers boosted supplies, which may exceed demand through 6 a.m. London time tomorrow”.   Demand is at its highest level since January 10th. In conjunction with the fall in gas prices power prices have also fallen for the second day in a row and March power contracts have fallen as much as 3.7 percent.  
 
In the short term, temperatures in London are expected to rebound above freezing but will still be 2-4 degrees cooler than normal.  In fact, there is not a single day in the month of February that is forecast to be above normal. To make matters worse, light snow is forecast for the next 5-7 days in the region which could hamper the clean up process. Travel should be back to normal levels by Wednesday but due to the cold wet conditions foot fall will be decreased.  

UK temperature and Precipitation Vs. Normal February 2009

 

 

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November Outlook

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

November, like October, is a transition month with temperatures fluctuating frequently with large swings from cool to warm weather. Unlike October though, the cool weather will win many more of the battles. Snowfall will increase in Scandinavia and the northern UK and the alpine region. This year however the cool weather will win even more.

 
Sea surface temperatures are almost 1.5C lower than normal in the North Sea and about 0.5C lower in the Mediterranean. This cooler SST will affect temperatures on the mainland as system approach from these cold spots. Weather in the U.K. will be particularly affected as we are forecasting the second coldest November in 8 years. Spain will see the coldest November in 7 years. Other countries in the EU will also see cool temperatures which will increase heating demand across much of the continent. 
 
Other indicators are also pointing to a cold November including the current MJO phase. It is forecast to go into phases 7,8 and 1 which points towards a cold western Europe. The models have been inconsistent at best recently so this needs to be watch very closely in the coming weeks. Aiding all of the cold air talk is the fact that the sun has not had a spot on it for weeks. We are in an extended period of the solar minimum, and in fact this year could have the most spotless days in a century.
 
The NAO remains a mystery for the month of November. Current outlooks are fuzzy at best but look to be trending slightly positive for the start of November. If the index remains positive we could see winds slightly above normal for most of the month increasing energy production in the many wind farms across Europe. 
 
Please check back tomorrow for the 7 day forecast across the EU.

 

 

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High Heating Demand early in the week

Monday, October 27th, 2008

 

The EU pattern will start the week with a cold front bringing in higher heatign demand requirements for many central EU demand cities; this pattern is cool vs. both last year and normal for late October.  While this will provide short term support for EU energy market prices, the pattern does look to return to a more normal pattern with the cooler temperatures retreating after around 03/04 Nov.  Short term pricing opportunities look to be strongest around 30/31 Oct. 

 

 

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Calm Weekend before Wild Weather Arrives Early Next Week

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008
This weekend looks to be quite calm with temperatures near or just below normal. Winds will be light and out of the west bring some milder conditions than what has been seen earlier this week. Heating demand this weekend will be low across much of Europe but that will change next week as a trough will begin to dig into central Europe bring cool gusty conditions.   
 
Winds throughout the UK will be very wet and windy especially Saturday. This weather will begin to spread southward as the weekend progresses bringing the sour weather into London Sunday and Monday. Following the precipitation, conditions will be blustery and cool. The front will be crossing the North Sea on Sunday and will bring the cool rain and blustery conditions into Northern Germany on Monday (see animation below). Winds will be strong with this system so electricity production will be high on the many wind farms in Germany, coal prices should come down some as energy production ramps up. 
 

 
This cold weather will carry right over into November which will start a cooler than normal month. HDD values are forecast to be about 4% higher than last year in Berlin. Similar trends will be seen in London, Paris and Madrid. Further south and east, HDD values will be very similar to slightly below the values observed last year for the month of November.    A full November outlook will be issued the middle of next week.

 

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