Archive for the ‘Germany’ Category

Turbine Output to Increase This Weekend

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw.  This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14th) for most of Germany.  This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up.  Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe.  Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week. 
 
In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union.  Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.  
 
Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.
 
*Courtesy Weather Trends International (click for larger image)
 
As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.

 

 

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Arctic Air Grips Much of Europe. Heating Demand Rises

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

 

Happy New Year and welcome to 2009. 
 
Conditions over much of Europe have been well below normal recently with the mercury not rising above zero in much of Eastern Europe. In fact, Berlin has been almost 10o C BELOW normal and more than 12oC below last years values. Temperatures have been as low as -13o C with high temperatures reaching only -7oC. In fact, Berlin is forecast to be well below normal for at least the next week. Other EU countries will also be experiencing the cold weather over the next week including France and the UK. Heating Demand will spike today (January 8th) but will remain high over the next few days. 
 
Winds in Northern Germany will be in the 6-10 knot range but will begin to ease through the coming days. Wind energy output peaked on January 4th at around 9000 MW and has not been able to rise above 5000 MW since. High heating demands and the low energy outputs from the wind warms should boost coal prices over the next few days. 
 
Several squalls will be entering into the North Sea over the next week and should aid wind farms in Scandinavia and even Northern UK. Impacts on North Sea Oil platforms are yet to be seen but winds will be in excess of 50kts in some parts of the region. 
 

 

 

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Wind Calms, Heating Demand Rises

Monday, December 22nd, 2008

 

Power production by the German wind farms has been up a good amount over the past 3 days peaking at more than 14,000 megawatts on the 20th.  Over the next 48-72 hours the winds will begin to calm decreasing energy output and giving coal prices a boost. 
 

 

As the winds calm in Germany, temperatures across the continent will cool. High temperatures will start in the double digits in much of France and Germany Monday but will drop into the low single digits in France and below zero in Eastern Europe. High heating demand along with the calm winds should give coal prices a big boost during the holiday week. 

 
 
 

 

 

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Warmer Weather Makes a Brief Return

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

Although this week is starting off on the cool side, temperatures will being to find their way back to normal by late in the week. In fact temperatures will be about 4 degrees warmer than last year in Berlin before going back to cooler than normal temps. The chart below shows the temperature trends starting last week and the 2 week forecast for some of the major cities in Europe. In the temperature fields, dark blue represents much colder, light blue is cooler, gray is similar, orange is warmer, and red is much warmer. For the precipitation column, dark green is much wetter, light green is wetter, gray is similar, yellow is drier and orange is much drier. 

 
 
As we enter December, cooler weather will begin to dominate much of the continent which is expected for a negative NAO. As forecasted, the NAO is trending more negative and is forecast to go greatly negative for the end of November before starting to head toward zero through the first half of December.

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Cold, Blustery Weather Next Week

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Temperatures across Europe have been up and down over the past few weeks and that trend looks like it will continue through into next week. Temperatures Wednesday were in the low 20’s in southeastern Europe lowering heating demand greatly. In southern Germany temps reached into the upper teens but this will all begin to change over the next week. By the 11th of November temperatures will be in the single digits in these warm areas.
 
As the energy demands rise, so will the wind speeds.  Winds have been quite calm over the past week or two but that will come to an end over the next week.  The system bringing the cold air will also bring strong winds, especially to northern Germany and the Netherlands. Gusts could be as high as 40 knots with steady winds as high as 25 knots in some regions. Coal prices could be hit as some of the strongest winds of the season will increase production from the wind farms.
http://www.windfinder.com

Image: http://www.windfinder.com

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November Outlook

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

November, like October, is a transition month with temperatures fluctuating frequently with large swings from cool to warm weather. Unlike October though, the cool weather will win many more of the battles. Snowfall will increase in Scandinavia and the northern UK and the alpine region. This year however the cool weather will win even more.

 
Sea surface temperatures are almost 1.5C lower than normal in the North Sea and about 0.5C lower in the Mediterranean. This cooler SST will affect temperatures on the mainland as system approach from these cold spots. Weather in the U.K. will be particularly affected as we are forecasting the second coldest November in 8 years. Spain will see the coldest November in 7 years. Other countries in the EU will also see cool temperatures which will increase heating demand across much of the continent. 
 
Other indicators are also pointing to a cold November including the current MJO phase. It is forecast to go into phases 7,8 and 1 which points towards a cold western Europe. The models have been inconsistent at best recently so this needs to be watch very closely in the coming weeks. Aiding all of the cold air talk is the fact that the sun has not had a spot on it for weeks. We are in an extended period of the solar minimum, and in fact this year could have the most spotless days in a century.
 
The NAO remains a mystery for the month of November. Current outlooks are fuzzy at best but look to be trending slightly positive for the start of November. If the index remains positive we could see winds slightly above normal for most of the month increasing energy production in the many wind farms across Europe. 
 
Please check back tomorrow for the 7 day forecast across the EU.

 

 

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High Heating Demand early in the week

Monday, October 27th, 2008

 

The EU pattern will start the week with a cold front bringing in higher heatign demand requirements for many central EU demand cities; this pattern is cool vs. both last year and normal for late October.  While this will provide short term support for EU energy market prices, the pattern does look to return to a more normal pattern with the cooler temperatures retreating after around 03/04 Nov.  Short term pricing opportunities look to be strongest around 30/31 Oct. 

 

 

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