EU Energy Weather

November, like October, is a transition month with temperatures fluctuating frequently with large swings from cool to warm weather. Unlike October though, the cool weather will win many more of the battles. Snowfall will increase in Scandinavia and the northern UK and the alpine region. This year however the cool weather will win even more.

The EU pattern will start the week with a cold front bringing in higher heatign demand requirements for many central EU demand cities; this pattern is cool vs. both last year and normal for late October.  While this will provide short term support for EU energy market prices, the pattern does look to return to a more normal pattern with the cooler temperatures retreating after around 03/04 Nov.  Short term pricing opportunities look to be strongest around 30/31 Oct. 

A cool front currently over the UK will be moving into the mainland over the next two days.   This will finally bring some below normal readings though much of Western Europe. Paris could see 2 weeks of below normal conditions. Rome will not see extended below normal temperatures until the middle of next week. As this system makes its way across the continent it should bring moderate winds to the German wind farms. Wind energy producers should enjoy this time of the year. Each of these systems brings with it the potential of steady wind, especially to the farms closest to the northern coast of Germany.  

Along with the cool air, the front will bring precipitation to much of the continent. In the map above you can see the elongated region of rain from Central Spain all the way into Western Russia. The Alps will see some snow associated with the precipitation but not much in areas of dense population.   

Tropical Storm Omar continues its movement to the north and is expected to impact European weather early next week. Remnants of Omar will bring rain and wind to the UK and northern Europe Monday into Tuesday. The UK will see very windy conditions and some moderate to heavy rain. Northern Scotland could even see some wintry precipitation mixed in. As the system moves east, winds will increase in North East Germany. Winds will be greater than 10knots and as high as 15 knots in the more northern wind farms. Following a brief lull late Tuesday into Wednesday winds could again increase to greater than 10knots come late in the week into the weekend. Coal prices could take a hit as we enter a windy period over the next few weeks. 

With hurricane season winding down, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made some questionable decisions in naming storms; the most recent example is the naming of Nana. This storm formed then dissipated faster than the recent rally on Wall Street. There are several theories as to why they are naming questionable storms, none of which I will get into here, but it is worth mentioning to prevent getting sucked in with the number of storms in a season. In fact, this year threatens to break last year’s record of the fewest tropical cyclone days in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Of course, the number of cyclone days will not make much of a difference as it only takes one or two storms to hinder petroleum production. Currently, there are 2 systems of interest in the Caribbean, neither of which will impact the production region. Hurricane Omar has developed, as predicted, southeast of Puerto Rico and is forecast to head north into the open Atlantic. Its remnants will be worth watching as they could play a role in European weather next week.  Tropical Depression 16 has formed just east of Honduras and is forecast to move west over the next 24 hours. Naming of this system SHOULD NOT happen but as we’ve seen in the past, it is not out of the question. 

Temperatures across the continent will see a slight cooling period as a trough moves in from the northwest. Heating demand will see a boost over the next 24-72 hours in central Europe. Eastern Germany could see highs in the single digits in some locations while Berlin will see highs around 12 C Friday through Sunday.  London will see below average temperatures through the weekend before warming back up early next week. Omar impacts could throw a wrench in this forecast as the final track is not yet fully known. 

This past weekend was quite warm across much of the mainland with Paris and Berlin being almost 5 C above normal and Madrid being 3 C above. This continues the trend of warm weather in October. Moscow started the month with temperatures 5.3C above normal for the first week.  The warm weather stretched across much of Russia even through Siberia.