EU Energy Weather

After a 5 day period where winds were quite calm and turbine output never broke the 5,000 kw barrier we have seen a, for lack of a better word, surge in output peaking at 9,000 kw.  This spike may be short lived as winds are forecast to be less than 5 knots tomorrow (the 14^th) for most of Germany.  This should bring turbine output way down and again push the price of coal up.  Going into the weekend winds will begin to pick up again as a system passes through the region. Late in the weekend winds could be in the 15-20 knot range for much of the Northern Europe.  Turbine output should spike on Sunday but winds will be high starting Saturday through most of early next week. 

 

In conjunction with the increase in winds, temperatures will begin to rise decreasing heating demand in much of the Union.  Temperatures will remain above 0C on Monday in Much of Germany with Highs being 4-8C. Wet weather will also accompany the system this weekend as rain will fall in much of Northern Europe, luckily the warmer temperatures should limit any potential ice build up on turbines further increasing total output.  

 

Below is a chart of forecasted heating degree days and temperature for a few countries in the European Union.

 

 

As usual, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments.

Happy New Year and welcome to 2009. 

 

Conditions over much of Europe have been well below normal recently with the mercury not rising above zero in much of Eastern Europe. In fact, Berlin has been almost 10^o C BELOW normal and more than 12^oC below last years values. Temperatures have been as low as -13^o C with high temperatures reaching only -7^oC. In fact, Berlin is forecast to be well below normal for at least the next week. Other EU countries will also be experiencing the cold weather over the next week including France and the UK. Heating Demand will spike today (January 8^th) but will remain high over the next few days. 

 

Winds in Northern Germany will be in the 6-10 knot range but will begin to ease through the coming days. Wind energy output peaked on January 4^th at around 9000 MW and has not been able to rise above 5000 MW since. High heating demands and the low energy outputs from the wind warms should boost coal prices over the next few days. 

 

Several squalls will be entering into the North Sea over the next week and should aid wind farms in Scandinavia and even Northern UK. Impacts on North Sea Oil platforms are yet to be seen but winds will be in excess of 50kts in some parts of the region.