Warm Temperatures Hurt Heating Demand
Tropical activity is still non-existent right now but there are some areas of investigation. The most prominent is still in the middle of the Atlantic and any threat to the production region is low. Historically, storm development this time of year is confined to the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
As expected, NAO values are beginning to trend neutral and should go positive shortly. A positive NAO typically leads to a warm dry weather in much of southern Europe while the UK and Scandinavia are typically warm and wet. Its impact is most relevant in the winter months as the Icelandic low and Bermuda high help direct storms into northern Europe.
Temperatures this weekend, and even into next week, will be well above normal for much of the continent. Berlin, Paris, and Madrid will all have high temperatures 2-4 C above normal. Heating demand will suffer as the temperatures rise. A frontal system will be coming in from the Atlantic bringing with is some rain into Spain as well as some potential thunderstorms. Also with this approaching system, strong winds will be observed throughout southern Spain.