Cooling will diminish giving way to heat come the weekend.
As October moves towards the half-way point, tropical storm threats will die down, temperatures will begin to cool and the influence of the NAO will increase. In the short term, there is no threat of tropical storms influencing the production region but with the official end of hurricane season still a few weeks off we will continue to monitor the situation. After being positive almost all of September, the NAO has been negative the past week or so. Current computer models trend the pattern towards the positive over the next 5-7 days which should bring a shift to the overall weather pattern across much of Europe.
In the short term, temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula will begin to cool down as the week comes to an end but will warm up nicely into the weekend. In the UK, temperatures will be in the low teens for most of the Nation. Cool wet weather will increase heating demand especially in the north. As we enter the weekend, warm weather will begin to take hold across much of the mainland. Italy, Southern France, and Germany will be slightly above normal, while Eastern Europe will be quite cool, increasing heating demand for much of the region.